Application of system dynamics in modelling the impact of land use and transport systems on urban natural environment: a case of Pune city

Abstract

Over the years, the world’s population living in cities or urban centres has been rising steadily. As the world is rapidly urbanizing, urbanization is becoming an unstoppable phenomenon in India too. Cities have been perceived as the biggest generators of greenhouse gases (GHGs), imparting excessively to climate change globally. Cities put up above 67% of global GHG emissions from fossil fuel usage, and this is anticipated to rise to 73% by 2030. Similarly, water quality deterioration due discharge of effluents in the water bodies has also become a challenge which needs to be tackled in cities of many countries. In India, an increase in number & rising population of metropolitan cities & census towns has taken place during the last two to three decades. An unparalleled increase of motor vehicles is observed in last twenty to thirty years leading to air quality deterioration, congestion etc. Although, urban development is a dynamic and complex system, involving a number of different stakeholders or agents and the interrelation within it changes & operate on different time scales & occur at significantly different speed There are research that focus on specific aspects of urban growth, but there is very little practical study that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess the interplay between urban growth and development dynamics and their environmental impact. Thus, an accurate assessment of the dynamics of urban growth is necessary for understanding the environmental impacts. System Dynamics is a method for understanding and controlling complex feedback systems that involves analyzing the complex and interdependent relationships between the system's components. It is a very efficient way to represent complex systems and their functioning which can be demonstrated to decision makers & will help to solve complex urban problems. Using Pune as a case study, the aim of the research is to develop a system dynamic simulation model of the determinants and environmental effects of urban growth and development. The model is divided into three parts: land use, transportation, and the urban natural environment. Three different scenarios will be created based on the simulation model's performance, each of which will be evaluated. The three scenarios are: the impact on the basis of current speed of the growth and development, the impact of rapid/high speed and the impact of controlled speed of the growth. The simulation model and the scenarios generated will help professionals involved in urban planning & decision makers to formulate policies for reducing the impact on urban natural environment of the city.