Mitigating cascading impacts for cyclone disaster recovery/

Abstract

The escalating cyclone activity in India's cyclone-prone regions is placing unprecedented stress on critical infrastructure (CI) systems, a situation exacerbated by the escalating impacts of climate change. While the Bay of Bengal historically experienced more cyclones, recent studies reveal a staggering 52% surge in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea, with storms enduring 80% longer and displaying rapid intensification. This alarming trend poses an imminent threat to India's western coast, particularly to multi-hazard-prone states like Gujarat. Hence, there is an urgent need for disaster recovery and preparedness planning to incorporate pre- and post-disaster measures to create more resilient CIs by integrating preparedness strategies. This study meticulously addresses the critical disaster preparedness and recovery needs at a regional level, specifically focusing on power supply disruption during cyclones in the coastal cyclone-prone Somnath district of Gujarat, India. The research comprehensively analyzes the interdependencies of the power sector, a crucial CI, with other essential CIs (water supply, cyclone shelters, and road networks) across 40 coastal villages, considering local priorities and challenges. It delves explicitly into the district's power supply system, which is divided into two management divisions controlled by separate transmission power supply circles, revealing one division as more vulnerable due to factors such as greater distance from control centers, inadequate management, and maintenance gaps, highlighting a critical fragility in disaster response and recovery. This study uses primary and secondary data to investigate the vulnerabilities in the power sector and its cascading impacts on three key CI sectors. Network analysis assesses connectivity to understand infrastructure interdependencies, and a Climate Vulnerability Index evaluates sectoral risks. Notably, the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method analyzes cascading impacts and maps cause-and-effect relationships at the parameter level, explicitly assessing interrelationships with the power sector as a primary driver. Building on experiences from past cyclonic events, Vayu (2019), Biparjoy(2021), and Tauktae(2023), the findings aim to provide actionable spatial strategy recommendations that directly support both pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster disaster recovery planning. By identifying high-risk zones and critical interdependencies among infrastructure sectors, the findings enable targeted interventions to mitigate cascading failures. Keywords: Critical Infrastructure (CI); Cyclone Resilience; Power Sector Vulnerability; Cascading Impacts; Disaster Preparedness; Disaster Recovery